American Economic Survival: The Argument for an Extraterrestrial Conflict

The current economic condition of the United States is in a precarious and potentially dire state. Following the financial turmoil of 2008-2009, the general economic recovery has brought about mixed results. While overall corporate profits and certain economic sectors have generally recovered (e.g. digital media and technology), the most basic socio-economic measures remain historically weak. The official unemployment rate hovers between 9% - 10%, with underemployment between 19% - 20%, household wealth has plummeted in the previous five years, and real estate estate prices are still near their bottom. The indicators that matter most to most people look and feel quite dim. Short and medium term predictions do not foresee significant improvement.

Stimulative actions taken by the U.S. Government did show to have some positive impact, but similar additional moves are nearly impossible - due to a highly divided and gridlocked U.S. Government that is focused on deficit reduction. It is commonly accepted that a short-term surge of economic demand - i.e. the desire and ability for consumers and companies to spend money on goods and services - is a necessary catalyst for true recovery. Thus the question arises: What can give rise to such a demand-based catalyst?

As a nation, we faced a very similar economic/governmental divide in the late 1930s and early 1940s. Although the Great Depression had officially ended, many post-depressionary indicators were still abysmal. In 1938, unemployment still hovered around 20%, while in 1940 the rate was stuck at a stubbornly painful 15%. Following some of the most progressive economic legislation in history, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the President at the time, faced a legislative body with very little appetite for further stimulative action and deficit spending. Instead of further stimulus, F.D.R. made the mistake of reducing government spending and undercutting the fragile, demand-starved, economy of the time. Our nation faced an eerily similar precipice to the one we face today.

What saved the U.S. economy from a stagnating death spiral in 1940? World War II. The global conflict that had raged from 1939, finally embroiled the United States in 1941. Victory required massive industrial, logistical, informational, and human output. Tanks and planes, roads and boats, computers and telephones, soldiers and laborers were all newly necessary. By 1942, unemployment was below 5%, by 1944, it was below 2%. Although the war had cost the world millions of lives, it was also the positive demand catalyst for a glorious fifty years of U.S. economic prosperity.

What are the ramifications for today? A global, human conflict of necessity where the economy is positively stimulated across the board, i.e. a World War III, is a near impossibility. Nuclear weaponry has made certain of this. An extraterrestrial invasion of planet Earth would be a more viable alternative. A united human front against alien aggression could be just the right medicine for our economic doldrums - a raison d'être for a whole new era of defense infrastructure and equipment. Millions could be put back to work for a common good while underutilized factories would be retrofitted to help meet our new intergalactic challenge.

For this scenario to work, our invaders must not be too powerful so as to actually defeat and/or enslave the human race. In addition, for maximum U.S. benefit, major battles and associated collateral damage outside of the North American continent would be preferable. A global conflict between an extraterrestrial power and a united human resistance would near-certainly serve as a massive catalyst for economic demand.

...Or our government leaders in Washington and corporate leaders across the country can get their shit together so that I wouldn't need to argue for the merits of an alien invasion...

The Shopping Ripple

The time of gift-giving is upon us. This year's holiday season is especially prominent in mass media coverage because of the economic signals that consumer spending sends. Much will be known based on the purchasing results of this month.

This time-period is also vital on a microeconomic level. Within this holiday period new products will be heavily discussed, analyzed, and rated. It will be the make-or-break time for things such as the new Amazon Kindle.

So when you're standing in that long line at Macy's waiting to pay for a sweater, take comfort in knowing how powerful this potential purchase really is. This one month of magnified consumer whims will create ripple effects that will impact specific individuals, companies, industries, and even whole economies for years to come.

The Invite

Since Internet-based products and services are much more scalable than actual real-world products and services there is usually very little natural scarcity on the supply-side of these digital goods - i.e. a website can be read almost infinitely while nearly no additional resource is consumed.

Although this makes sharing wonderfully simple, it also prevents brands from creating the "long-line effect" - i.e. from showing how wonderful their product is through the long lines of people waiting to buy. So to overcome this temporary side-effect, many companies are now utilizing the invite. After initially launching an Internet-based product or service, these companies distribute only a select number of invites.

This creates both an artificial scarcity and a collective buzz. The most important characteristic of the invite is timing - using it for too short and there is no "long-line effect"; using it for too long and potential consumers will become frustrated and might never come back. Although the usage of the invite can potentially reap benefits, it is still more of an artform than a science.

Five Signs that the Economy is Getting Better

1. The line at 99 Cent Pizza has been shorter lately
2. The elevator that I take to get to my office has been stopping more frequently on the floors between the lobby and my work space - in particular, on the floors of the recruiting firms
3. I haven't experienced as many taxis rolling down their windows and yelling at me to get in, playing demolition derby to capture a fare, or generally as angry
4. Facebook has once again taken over LinkedIn to become the preferred method for "catching up" amongst my friends
5. Staycations are almost not trendy any more.

Data Makes the World Go 'Round

Data.gov is one of my favorite new websites. I work in a job where data is vital for making recommendations and Data.gov is a valuable new tool that enables quick but powerful research. The website is a government resource with the purpose "to increase public access to high value, machine readable datasets generated by the Executive Branch of the Federal Government."

Governments are often a vital first resource of macro-economic data, and Data.gov takes that to the next level. This type of organization and openness is well worth the investment as it benefits the overall economy. If I can save 30 minutes a week (which is a very reasonable estimate) then others must be saving time as well. And as we all know: "time is money."