I've had my old BlackBerry mobile phone for nearly three years. Due to a lack of time and patience, I've been putting off an upgrade for quite a few months. But as the keyboard loses its responsiveness and the screen dies a slowly dimming death, I will be forced to make the upgrade decision within weeks.
Three years ago, this decision was pretty simple. If I wanted to send and receive emails, surf the mobile web (kinda), and make phone calls, the BlackBerry had nearly no competition - it was essentially the only real "smartphone." Today, hundreds of phones fit this description. Some have tactile keyboards, some have touchscreens, and some have both. Most have some sort of digital application marketplace - where I can buy cool, downloadable programs and games. Nearly all are reasonably priced.
Within a few short years, the smartphone is nearly a universal device. Manufacturers have realized the potential for this next generation of devices. This rapid flood of new phones has surely made my decision more difficult - and I have the feeling that I'm not the only one.
Showing posts with label trends. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trends. Show all posts
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Monday, December 28, 2009
Why the Top?
It seems that the media loves to reminisce. Over the past few weeks I've read, heard, and saw hundreds of top-10/top-100 lists depicting the best/worst of 2009 and of the past decade. Everything from iPhone apps to music to sociological phenomenons to scientific breakthroughs has been scrutinized and ranked.
Now a little bit of nostalgia is always fun but never have I seen such a heightened sense of past-awareness. Is the future so uncertain that all we can do is wrap ourselves in the safety of previous events? This is probably a big part of the answer for mediums such as newspapers and magazines - which might not even exist by the time 2019 rolls around.
But why are so many bloggers so obsessed with cataloguing the past 1-10 years? Probably because it's such an easy concept to turn into quasi-meaningful content. A ten minute search can revive my memory of nearly any concept. The 2000-2009 decade is the first to have broadband documentation of every significant moment. So top-10/top-100 lists are the perfect mix of convenience and nostalgia.
Now a little bit of nostalgia is always fun but never have I seen such a heightened sense of past-awareness. Is the future so uncertain that all we can do is wrap ourselves in the safety of previous events? This is probably a big part of the answer for mediums such as newspapers and magazines - which might not even exist by the time 2019 rolls around.
But why are so many bloggers so obsessed with cataloguing the past 1-10 years? Probably because it's such an easy concept to turn into quasi-meaningful content. A ten minute search can revive my memory of nearly any concept. The 2000-2009 decade is the first to have broadband documentation of every significant moment. So top-10/top-100 lists are the perfect mix of convenience and nostalgia.
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Safe Cells?
Mobile telephony has been plagued by the rumors of negative side-effects since the beginning of widespread adoption. Scientists have issued countless studies that have yielded in contradictory evidence concerning the safety of cell phones. The public perception of physical dangers has fluctuated but has never seemed to slow the proliferation of ever-more sophisticated mobile handsets and ever-more ubiquitous mobile usage.
Today, it was announced that the Maine legislature is considering requiring mobile phones to carry warnings about potential negative effects - such as cancer. This would be the first time that such a public and reputable warning would be attached to mobile phones in the United States. It would conceptually make mobile phones similar to cigarettes and alcohol.
Would such a warning have any influence on mobile usage? Potentially - especially if steps to minimize risk were clearly outlined - e.g. using the speakerphone option, etc. But unless these warnings are based on new, more conclusive studies, the massive expansion of mobile will not be slowed. Unless more short-term negative effects become clear, the positive efficiency impact of mobile services will continue to push further adoption.
Today, it was announced that the Maine legislature is considering requiring mobile phones to carry warnings about potential negative effects - such as cancer. This would be the first time that such a public and reputable warning would be attached to mobile phones in the United States. It would conceptually make mobile phones similar to cigarettes and alcohol.
Would such a warning have any influence on mobile usage? Potentially - especially if steps to minimize risk were clearly outlined - e.g. using the speakerphone option, etc. But unless these warnings are based on new, more conclusive studies, the massive expansion of mobile will not be slowed. Unless more short-term negative effects become clear, the positive efficiency impact of mobile services will continue to push further adoption.
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Close to the Future
How difficult would it be to describe flying in an airplane to someone from 1850? Pretty difficult. For someone from that era there is no relative comparison - nothing even comes close to that which can be used as an analogous description of today's air travel.
How difficult would it be to describe the Internet to someone from 1900? Somewhat difficult. In the era where labor (both physical and machine-based) was king, a worldwide information network would mean very little to the common man. Yet the value of information, particularly that of the newspaper, was quickly expanding.
How difficult is it to accurately imagine what radical innovation the near-future will bring? Not easy, but not impossible. We are more connected to the future than any generation before us. It is exactly the radical innovations of air travel and the Internet that make tomorrow more tangible. It's now nearly impossible for the future to hide and grow in a little, hidden cave.
How difficult would it be to describe the Internet to someone from 1900? Somewhat difficult. In the era where labor (both physical and machine-based) was king, a worldwide information network would mean very little to the common man. Yet the value of information, particularly that of the newspaper, was quickly expanding.
How difficult is it to accurately imagine what radical innovation the near-future will bring? Not easy, but not impossible. We are more connected to the future than any generation before us. It is exactly the radical innovations of air travel and the Internet that make tomorrow more tangible. It's now nearly impossible for the future to hide and grow in a little, hidden cave.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Super-Maps
Maps are nothing new. They've been crafted for thousands of years by men trying to make sense of the world we live in. Maps have been perfected for extreme accuracy, augmented to provide multi-dimensional perspectives, and have even been stylized into genuine works of art. Yet this age-old domain has resurfaced as a major battleground for such technology giants as Google, Microsoft, and Nokia.
Why have maps become so important again? Maps were never unimportant, just little innovation in this space had made maps non-glamorous. It is innovation that has given maps new life, that has made them the darling of the next frontier.
Since maps are models of the world we live in, they are the most fundamental method for tracking spacial changes - e.g. movement, construction, weather, etc. The proliferation of the mobile Internet, location-aware mobile devices (powered by GPS technology, etc.), and powerful pocket-sized computers - i.e. smartphones - has given maps a new level of importance. When combined, the old technology of traditional maps and the new technology of completely ubiquitous real-time communication creates a powerful informational force.
These new super-maps have the ability to give a rich, real-time image of the world around us. These new super-maps let us instantly find our friends, our food, our shelter. These new super-maps move humans one step closer to omnipresence.
Why have maps become so important again? Maps were never unimportant, just little innovation in this space had made maps non-glamorous. It is innovation that has given maps new life, that has made them the darling of the next frontier.
Since maps are models of the world we live in, they are the most fundamental method for tracking spacial changes - e.g. movement, construction, weather, etc. The proliferation of the mobile Internet, location-aware mobile devices (powered by GPS technology, etc.), and powerful pocket-sized computers - i.e. smartphones - has given maps a new level of importance. When combined, the old technology of traditional maps and the new technology of completely ubiquitous real-time communication creates a powerful informational force.
These new super-maps have the ability to give a rich, real-time image of the world around us. These new super-maps let us instantly find our friends, our food, our shelter. These new super-maps move humans one step closer to omnipresence.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
The Lifestyle of Things
No longer are things just things. All sorts of objects are now marketed as an integral component of a wider, complementary lifestyle. The type of refrigerator you buy, the type of car you drive, and especially the type of home you live in signal, both to yourself and to the world, exactly what type of person you are. All of these purely inanimate things are now both the cause for and the result of a particular life path.
Although advertisers have leveraged this reality for some time now, the standard approach has been to link particular products to one's level of wealth, to one's material status. Today, a car can signal wealth - but it can also signal an outgoing lifestyle, a conservative lifestyle, an urban lifestyle, a rural/rugged lifestyle, etc. The same goes for nearly all widely advertised objects - from toilet paper to personal jets.
Source: Jeep.com
This is neither good nor bad. It is part of the materialistic culture which still dominates our society. But it does present both a challenge and an opportunity to those looking to produce and market virtual goods - the backbone of new economic models developing on the web.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Risky Real-Time
The real-time web refers a broad set of Internet-based services that enable instant digital communication. Some elements of the real time web have existed for a while now - e.g. real-time one-to-one and few-to-few forms of communication such as Instant Messaging and Chat. But over the past couple of years the Internet has experienced the quick proliferation of one-to-many real-time communication - i.e. Facebook, Twitter, etc.
Along with digital communication, digital goods have also enabled real-time transactions. iTunes is the prime example of a real-time commerce application where a quick transaction brings upon instant gratification. Anyone can purchase a song, movie, or software within seconds.
The real-time web has significantly improved the Internet - it has fostered many new forms of communication and transaction. But the real-time web also introduces new risks that the old, more static web didn't suffer. Since data can spread instantly, misinformation can reach many people before it is proven to be false. Rumors are thus experiencing a Renaissance within this new reality. In the financial realm, the real-time web gives bad guys the ability to quickly perform hit-and-run scams. Money laundering and other transnational schemes can flourish before anyone realizes what's going on.
So what we have is typical to most human innovation and evolution - the new technology that is quickly misused. But this time things may be different. The real-time web is quickly becoming the foundation of the new Internet. It is here to stay and so are those who attempt to misuse it. We must realize that real-time is both a gift and a huge challenge. The real-time web is the battlefield of the future.
Along with digital communication, digital goods have also enabled real-time transactions. iTunes is the prime example of a real-time commerce application where a quick transaction brings upon instant gratification. Anyone can purchase a song, movie, or software within seconds.
The real-time web has significantly improved the Internet - it has fostered many new forms of communication and transaction. But the real-time web also introduces new risks that the old, more static web didn't suffer. Since data can spread instantly, misinformation can reach many people before it is proven to be false. Rumors are thus experiencing a Renaissance within this new reality. In the financial realm, the real-time web gives bad guys the ability to quickly perform hit-and-run scams. Money laundering and other transnational schemes can flourish before anyone realizes what's going on.
So what we have is typical to most human innovation and evolution - the new technology that is quickly misused. But this time things may be different. The real-time web is quickly becoming the foundation of the new Internet. It is here to stay and so are those who attempt to misuse it. We must realize that real-time is both a gift and a huge challenge. The real-time web is the battlefield of the future.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Don't Unfriend Me
"Unfriend" was declared to be the word of the year by the New Oxford American Dictionary. The word means to disconnect a link to someone within a social networking setting.
Most discussion on this matter has focused on the merit of the word - i.e. if it is valuable enough to be added to a serious dictionary and thus near-permanently inserted into the English language. But I take this debate to be moot. The word exists and it is widely used. It's hard to predict the future, but for now it is an important concept.
What intrigues me is the underlying reality that unfriend establishes. It depicts a world where friendship can seemingly be turned on and off with the click of a button. Although this might just be the digital method of a symbolic process which humans have utilized for decades, it connects a chillingly simple word to the deconstruction of a relationship.
Most discussion on this matter has focused on the merit of the word - i.e. if it is valuable enough to be added to a serious dictionary and thus near-permanently inserted into the English language. But I take this debate to be moot. The word exists and it is widely used. It's hard to predict the future, but for now it is an important concept.
What intrigues me is the underlying reality that unfriend establishes. It depicts a world where friendship can seemingly be turned on and off with the click of a button. Although this might just be the digital method of a symbolic process which humans have utilized for decades, it connects a chillingly simple word to the deconstruction of a relationship.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Soccer Moves Up
In preparation of the 2010 soccer World Cup in South Africa, ESPN today released its Soccer Power Index. The index ranks the relative level of capability of national soccer teams. It was developed with the help of Nate Silver and is equipped to have predictive power - i.e. a higher rank indicates a greater chance of success during future matches.
What does this mean? It means that soccer is finally hitting the tipping point of popularity in the United States. Football, baseball, and basketball have had similar ranking systems for years. It means that there is significant interest in this fun method for expressing athletic pride. It also means that ESPN views soccer as a lucrative investment.
What does this mean? It means that soccer is finally hitting the tipping point of popularity in the United States. Football, baseball, and basketball have had similar ranking systems for years. It means that there is significant interest in this fun method for expressing athletic pride. It also means that ESPN views soccer as a lucrative investment.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Late Night Letdown
In the late 1980s/early 1990s, late night television was exciting. It was unpredictable, innovative, and buzz-worthy. Today, late night TV (Leno, Conan, Fallon, Letterman, etc.) has lost its charm. I'm not sure when it happened, but I am sure that this form of entertainment has lost most of its significance as an important cultural movement.
The expanded variety of entertainment that comes from cable television and the Internet has probably diluted the reach of late night. But I believe the main cause for the decline in relevance stems from a decline in the taboo-factor. No longer is network television-based late night comedy the most exciting form of nearly free entertainment. No longer is any unpredictability associated with the corporate machine that drives the typical plug-the-movie/album format of these stale shows.
The expanded variety of entertainment that comes from cable television and the Internet has probably diluted the reach of late night. But I believe the main cause for the decline in relevance stems from a decline in the taboo-factor. No longer is network television-based late night comedy the most exciting form of nearly free entertainment. No longer is any unpredictability associated with the corporate machine that drives the typical plug-the-movie/album format of these stale shows.
Monday, November 2, 2009
The Facebook Generation
I have an awesome one-year-old cousin. He is a very cool child that already knows how to hold a mobile phone, look into a web cam, and speak into a microphone. He is also part of a generation that will never know a world without Internet-enabled social networking - e.g. Facebook, Skype, Twitter, etc.
What does this mean for the little guy?
What does this mean for the little guy?
- He will have every important moment of his life permanently documented
- He will have the concepts of networking and social portfolios ingrained in his psyche from his earliest points of consciousness
- He will expect a high level of openness and sharing from most
- Geographic distance will no longer be a barrier
- Diversity will be based more on personality than ethnicity
- Reading and writing will be his primary means of communication.
Those are just a few potential repercussions for The Facebook Generation. I'm not sure what this will mean for the world in twenty years - but I am sure that it will be different from today's reality.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
No Answer
I realized today that I'm a phone number screener. If someone calls my mobile or home phone, I make sure that I recognize the phone number prior to answering. I'll think twice about answering if a number looks familiar but doesn't necessarily trigger recognition. I won't even think about answering a "Private Caller" or "Unknown." I suspect that I'm part of the majority when it comes to filtering calls.
What's most interesting about this now-dominant phenomenon is the speed at which it's become a nearly ubiquitous human habit. Thirty years ago, every call was a "Private Caller." Twenty years ago, few home phones had Caller ID and mobile phones weren't even in the picture. Ten years ago, the habits had sprouted with built-in Caller ID and some mobile phones. Today, my friends don't answer my calls unless my number is in their phone.
Many claim that the digital-communication revolution (both Internet and mobile) has fostered only open and free communication. Here is a prime example of an opposite trend primarily driven by the same technology.
What's most interesting about this now-dominant phenomenon is the speed at which it's become a nearly ubiquitous human habit. Thirty years ago, every call was a "Private Caller." Twenty years ago, few home phones had Caller ID and mobile phones weren't even in the picture. Ten years ago, the habits had sprouted with built-in Caller ID and some mobile phones. Today, my friends don't answer my calls unless my number is in their phone.
Many claim that the digital-communication revolution (both Internet and mobile) has fostered only open and free communication. Here is a prime example of an opposite trend primarily driven by the same technology.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Cyber Sports
I'm a big fan of international sports such as soccer and European league basketball. Living in the United States meant that I couldn't have timely updates on the results of my teams. Following events in real-time wasn't even an option. That was ten years ago.
Five years ago, I could follow any major global sporting event in near-real-time via textual, Internet-based updates. Today, I can watch any major sporting event live, via some form of Web TV. In a few years, the Internet will enable me to watch any sporting event.
If ESPN and the likes are even considering capturing the long tail of sports fans, they'll need to significantly increase the number of television channels they offer. Otherwise, fans will increasingly turn to the Internet for all their sports needs.
Five years ago, I could follow any major global sporting event in near-real-time via textual, Internet-based updates. Today, I can watch any major sporting event live, via some form of Web TV. In a few years, the Internet will enable me to watch any sporting event.
If ESPN and the likes are even considering capturing the long tail of sports fans, they'll need to significantly increase the number of television channels they offer. Otherwise, fans will increasingly turn to the Internet for all their sports needs.
Monday, October 19, 2009
Web Design Can Be Fun
I stumbled upon a great website recently: The CSS Awards. This site highlights and awards other websites that utilize the CSS (Cascading Style Sheets) technology. It serves as a wonderful hub for discovering some beautiful designs.
Although most of the featured websites are quite different, a few underlying themes are apparent:
Although most of the featured websites are quite different, a few underlying themes are apparent:
- Photographs and cartoons are seamlessly combined.
- No longer are white and black the only backgrounds of choice.
- Huge font-sizes are in.
- Humor can serve a serious purpose.
- Straight lines no longer dominate - but neither do soft curves.
- Rich and often natural textures give new depths to a fundamentally 2-Dimensional canvas.
None of the recent design trends are revolutionary, but they are fun, imaginative, and usually quirky. They do show a new sense of excitement and an ever-growing visual freedom.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Virtual Travel is Next
Lately I've been thinking about the travel industry and where new disruptive innovation will come from in this field - over the next five to ten years. Recent developments such as the electrification of automobiles is important but far from revolutionary. We haven't really seen a true change in the way humans travel across the globe since the proliferation and commercialization of air travel.
So what's next? What will shake the way we directly get from one place to another? It probably won't be a new car, a faster train, or a better airplane. It might stem from our ability to communicate in real time via the Internet - through the form of video conferences. But that feels rather cold and still far from equalling the communicational and emotional fulfillment seen in live face-to-face contact.
Teleportation always comes up as an extreme next step - but the best we've done so far is move some photons around. So I believe that the real future of travel (or lack thereof) will be somewhere in between the remoteness of current Internet-based communication and the closeness that teleportation will enable. It will come from the proliferation and continuing evolution of virtual reality and its ever-expanding supporting infrastructure.
Soon we will be able to mimic the senses of sight, sound, and in part - touch. This will be done seamlessly, in real time, and across the whole world. Most importantly - in terms of global adoption - virtual reality will no longer be perceived as a geeky niche-technology by large corporations - the same corporations which are the source of much of the world's travel troops.
So what's next? What will shake the way we directly get from one place to another? It probably won't be a new car, a faster train, or a better airplane. It might stem from our ability to communicate in real time via the Internet - through the form of video conferences. But that feels rather cold and still far from equalling the communicational and emotional fulfillment seen in live face-to-face contact.
Teleportation always comes up as an extreme next step - but the best we've done so far is move some photons around. So I believe that the real future of travel (or lack thereof) will be somewhere in between the remoteness of current Internet-based communication and the closeness that teleportation will enable. It will come from the proliferation and continuing evolution of virtual reality and its ever-expanding supporting infrastructure.
Soon we will be able to mimic the senses of sight, sound, and in part - touch. This will be done seamlessly, in real time, and across the whole world. Most importantly - in terms of global adoption - virtual reality will no longer be perceived as a geeky niche-technology by large corporations - the same corporations which are the source of much of the world's travel troops.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Augmented Reality in Aisle 3
Augmented reality is one of the leading technological trends in the mobile communications space. This concept brings together a few different mobile-centric features - including the handset camera, the location-sensing features, and a mobile connection to the Internet - in order to deliver quite a compelling mobile service. Essentially, augmented reality allows the owner of a mobile handset (usually a smartphone such as an iPhone) to point their camera at the world around them and see an overlay of useful information through the phone's display.
This information can be purely factual - e.g. the name of the architect who designed the building in front of you. Or the information can be based on a collection of opinions, reviews, and other subjective matters - i.e. the ability to see a restaurant review by purely pointing the mobile device to the front door of the restaurant.
Where I see this technology potentially revolutionizing the we live is within the confines of shopping. For instance, the mobile phone's augmented reality features can fulfill the role of a personal shopping consultant - providing nutritional information and advice for food purchases, matching and pairing advice for clothing selection, or giving utilitarian advice when shopping for tools or construction materials. The possibilities are quite interesting and could be very innovative.
Although startups and software developers seem like the obvious catalysts for this innovation, old brick-and-mortar retailers might find that taking the early lead on this development might provide that additional spark in consumption needed to get us out of this recession.
This information can be purely factual - e.g. the name of the architect who designed the building in front of you. Or the information can be based on a collection of opinions, reviews, and other subjective matters - i.e. the ability to see a restaurant review by purely pointing the mobile device to the front door of the restaurant.
Where I see this technology potentially revolutionizing the we live is within the confines of shopping. For instance, the mobile phone's augmented reality features can fulfill the role of a personal shopping consultant - providing nutritional information and advice for food purchases, matching and pairing advice for clothing selection, or giving utilitarian advice when shopping for tools or construction materials. The possibilities are quite interesting and could be very innovative.
Although startups and software developers seem like the obvious catalysts for this innovation, old brick-and-mortar retailers might find that taking the early lead on this development might provide that additional spark in consumption needed to get us out of this recession.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
The Barriers to Touching
Many prominent technologists and industry watchers are predicting the death of the keyboard and other button-based input methods. The argument is based on the initial success of the iPhone (the first mass-market touch-based product), the declining prices of supporting technologies, and the possibility that such forms of input are in some way simpler and offer greater space-saving opportunity.
I generally agree with this opinion but also think there are a few fundamental hurdles left before touch-based tools become more widespread:
I generally agree with this opinion but also think there are a few fundamental hurdles left before touch-based tools become more widespread:
- Tactile Feedback. The beauty of the keyboard and the mouse is the feedback that the keys and buttons inherently provide - enabling us to feel the right key as it is pressed. A flat surface will need to mimic such feedback for typing to be possible - something that RIM has begun to do with the Blackberry Storm.
- Ergonomic Shape. The flat surface - typically used for current touch-based inputs - isn't conducive to comfort as it doesn't conform with human anatomy. Even the typical QWERTY keyboard seems more comfortable. The shape of touch-based tools will need to be redesigned, especially for repetitive usage that takes place in the corporate environment.
- Flexibility. I've intentionally used a vague term to describe the final barrier because it encompasses a few different concepts such as the speed of response, the accuracy, and the durability of this type of input. Generally, touch-based tools still feel fragile and not battle-tested for those 2 AM presentation-development binges.
Although not insignificant, these barriers will be overcome in the next few years, ushering in the age of touch-based input.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
The Wired Way
I love Wired magazine. It is one of the few publications for which I enjoy reading the paper copy more than the online version. This is because Wired is able to create a unique emotional, intellectual, and even physical response.
Because the online content is nearly identical to the paper version it must be some other feature that moves me to read the monthly, physical version. I think that it mainly has to do with design. The actual magazine is constructed in such a way that it always challenges my preconceived expectations for layout. Charts, diagrams, and drawings are surprisingly placed. The layout is a puzzle, that once solved, fosters an additional form of fulfillment.
I'm not sure that this can be replicated through digital text and images. But it does tell me that creativity combined with good content might prolong the existence of or even save some paper-based publications.
Because the online content is nearly identical to the paper version it must be some other feature that moves me to read the monthly, physical version. I think that it mainly has to do with design. The actual magazine is constructed in such a way that it always challenges my preconceived expectations for layout. Charts, diagrams, and drawings are surprisingly placed. The layout is a puzzle, that once solved, fosters an additional form of fulfillment.
I'm not sure that this can be replicated through digital text and images. But it does tell me that creativity combined with good content might prolong the existence of or even save some paper-based publications.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
The Second Résumé
We've officially reached a point where most new job applicants have two general types of résumés. The first is the typical one-to-two page template-based résumé that's been popular for decades. The other is a more fragmented, digital, cubist-like résumé.
This second résumé stems from the many different personal fingerprints we leave on the Internet. Some are explicit and easily managed - e.g. LinkedIn and Facebook profiles. Others are semi-relevant and mainly controllable - e.g. Tweets. Finally, the least predictable and least manageable forms on Internet-based expression could potentially live on without our knowledge and control - e.g. old Instant Messenger conversations, etc.
I believe that we are seeing a rapid growth in Web-based communication that fits within the second and third categories of the second résumé - i.e. Twitter usage is steadily growing more relevant, location-based services that come with more advanced mobile technology are becoming widespread, etc. This means that it's becoming increasingly difficult to manage the second résumé. It also means that employers are increasingly relying on the second résumé as the main, true behavioral indicator.
Because of these trends, identity management will become a much bigger industry than most can foresee. Since millions of jobs will soon depend on one's Web activity, billions of dollars are at stake from controlling the second résumé.
This second résumé stems from the many different personal fingerprints we leave on the Internet. Some are explicit and easily managed - e.g. LinkedIn and Facebook profiles. Others are semi-relevant and mainly controllable - e.g. Tweets. Finally, the least predictable and least manageable forms on Internet-based expression could potentially live on without our knowledge and control - e.g. old Instant Messenger conversations, etc.
I believe that we are seeing a rapid growth in Web-based communication that fits within the second and third categories of the second résumé - i.e. Twitter usage is steadily growing more relevant, location-based services that come with more advanced mobile technology are becoming widespread, etc. This means that it's becoming increasingly difficult to manage the second résumé. It also means that employers are increasingly relying on the second résumé as the main, true behavioral indicator.
Because of these trends, identity management will become a much bigger industry than most can foresee. Since millions of jobs will soon depend on one's Web activity, billions of dollars are at stake from controlling the second résumé.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Twitter is to Email as Radio is to Telephone
A very interesting, but flawed article by a young and wise blogger, Cody Brown, has been getting a good deal of deserved attention lately. He argues that because Twitter lacks a clear focus and an explicit mission, that it will suffer the same fate recently experienced by the similarly unfocused MySpace – i.e. a steady loss of users to more targeted and better defined services. His recommended remedy would have Twitter place all its chips on a core market, like MySpace has now begun to do by centering its offering on music.
Although I believe there is some validity to this overall argument, it is greatly hindered by the assumption that Twitter is a comparable species to MySpace – i.e. that the same evolutionary rules apply to both companies. I believe that Twitter is a fundamentally different beast from either MySpace or Facebook.
While progressive at the time, MySpace and Facebook were designed based on essentially static principles: profiles, virtual bulletin boards (walls), clearly defined networks and connections, groups, and photographs. These principles have been present in static media for decades – in yearbooks, in newsletters, on real walls and bulletin boards, in albums, etc. MySpace and Facebook initially represented the digitization of a pretty old paradigm for socialization. This paradigm is very reliant on the quantity and quality of content and is thus much more vulnerable to fragmentation – whoever offers the most of the best content usually wins more users. Cody’s analysis fits in very nicely within this framework because it clearly depicts how Facebook was able to offer more of better content – primarily driven by both an initial focus on colleges and by the transparency of actual identity verification. Both Facebook and MySpace have changed over time, but their initial principles shaped the trajectory of their relative success.
Twitter is based on different principles and thus relies on a different set of rules, a different group of prerequisites for success. Twitter was initially designed based on essentially dynamic principles: on mobile technology known as SMS (texting). This mobile technology is driven by real-time interaction. It is directly affected by the users’ unique geographical location and the unique perspective that stems from the location. This means that the paradigm is primarily reliant on the quantity of content – and the diversity that inherently stems from large quantities. For Twitter to succeed, it doesn't need to ensure the quality of its content. It only needs to continue to grow the amount of raw information that flows through its system – to become the go-to platform for this form of 140-character communication.
In many ways, Twitter represents a similar evolutionary leap from email that the radio was from the telephone. The radio added a new sense of mobility to distant communication. It opened the door to a more dynamic, democratic, and broader network of communication – eventually allowing the rise of mobile telephony. It also allowed for a much simpler process of rudimentary one-to-many communication. Like radio technology, Twitter represents a platform on top of which different networks are built. Companies will not build around Twitter, they will build on top of it. Because Twitter is a fundamental channel for communication that has opened up its infrastructure to others, its success does not depend on the quality of content that flows through its veins. By encouraging all forms of interaction, Twitter grows the required quantity of information that is transmitted across the system.
What this means is that Twitter is not a social network, it is a tool that social networks use to communicate. It also means that Twitter doesn't need to focus its content on a core target market in order to survive. Just like radio communication is used by billions of different stakeholders, Twitter’s aim should be similar in its broadness. It should serve as the most basic infrastructure for a new form of communication, where the greater the diversity of users and usage-categories, the greater the success of the core platform.
Although promising, Twitter still has numerous important challenges to consider and overcome - many of which I will explore in the near future.
Although I believe there is some validity to this overall argument, it is greatly hindered by the assumption that Twitter is a comparable species to MySpace – i.e. that the same evolutionary rules apply to both companies. I believe that Twitter is a fundamentally different beast from either MySpace or Facebook.
While progressive at the time, MySpace and Facebook were designed based on essentially static principles: profiles, virtual bulletin boards (walls), clearly defined networks and connections, groups, and photographs. These principles have been present in static media for decades – in yearbooks, in newsletters, on real walls and bulletin boards, in albums, etc. MySpace and Facebook initially represented the digitization of a pretty old paradigm for socialization. This paradigm is very reliant on the quantity and quality of content and is thus much more vulnerable to fragmentation – whoever offers the most of the best content usually wins more users. Cody’s analysis fits in very nicely within this framework because it clearly depicts how Facebook was able to offer more of better content – primarily driven by both an initial focus on colleges and by the transparency of actual identity verification. Both Facebook and MySpace have changed over time, but their initial principles shaped the trajectory of their relative success.
Twitter is based on different principles and thus relies on a different set of rules, a different group of prerequisites for success. Twitter was initially designed based on essentially dynamic principles: on mobile technology known as SMS (texting). This mobile technology is driven by real-time interaction. It is directly affected by the users’ unique geographical location and the unique perspective that stems from the location. This means that the paradigm is primarily reliant on the quantity of content – and the diversity that inherently stems from large quantities. For Twitter to succeed, it doesn't need to ensure the quality of its content. It only needs to continue to grow the amount of raw information that flows through its system – to become the go-to platform for this form of 140-character communication.
In many ways, Twitter represents a similar evolutionary leap from email that the radio was from the telephone. The radio added a new sense of mobility to distant communication. It opened the door to a more dynamic, democratic, and broader network of communication – eventually allowing the rise of mobile telephony. It also allowed for a much simpler process of rudimentary one-to-many communication. Like radio technology, Twitter represents a platform on top of which different networks are built. Companies will not build around Twitter, they will build on top of it. Because Twitter is a fundamental channel for communication that has opened up its infrastructure to others, its success does not depend on the quality of content that flows through its veins. By encouraging all forms of interaction, Twitter grows the required quantity of information that is transmitted across the system.
What this means is that Twitter is not a social network, it is a tool that social networks use to communicate. It also means that Twitter doesn't need to focus its content on a core target market in order to survive. Just like radio communication is used by billions of different stakeholders, Twitter’s aim should be similar in its broadness. It should serve as the most basic infrastructure for a new form of communication, where the greater the diversity of users and usage-categories, the greater the success of the core platform.
Although promising, Twitter still has numerous important challenges to consider and overcome - many of which I will explore in the near future.
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